What is El Niño? 

• El Niño refers to the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
• El Niño is an oceanic phenomenon. It is not a storm or a series of storms.
• El Niño can significantly influence atmospheric steering currents and storm tracks, often altering typical seasonal precipitation, ocean temperatures, and coastal weather hazards in California.

What is the Forecast for 2026-2027? 

• Currently the Pacific ocean’s daily sea temperatures are breaking records. This does automatically mean we will have a wetter winter or stronger storms, but it is a factor that can increase those odds.
• El Niño is already causing coastal flooding, due to the increase in water temperature (water expands in heat) and the Kelvin wave (the warmer oceanic water that is pushed to our side of the Pacific).
• We are expecting coastal flooding, and if combined with a large storm, flooding in general. We are keeping eye on King tides, or our highest tides of the year that will occur from:
  • Nov 21st-28th
  • Dec 20th-27th
  • Jan 17th-24th
• Forecasts for actual storms in our area will need to wait until at least 2 weeks out, with accurate estimates on strength and landfall being available 3-4 days out.

 What are the Potential Weather Hazards during El Niño? (These are not a guarantee!) 

• Coastal Flooding: Higher ocean levels due to warmer-than-normal waters can lead to more severe coastal erosion and coastal flooding, especially during periods of high tides and winter storms with surge and large waves. This has already been occurring.
• Urban Flooding: A warmer ocean increases the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. This can enhance precipitation in winter storms, leading to prolonged rain events, flash flooding, and urban drainage overflow.
• High Wind: Even without El Niño, severe wind is a deadly hazard during winter storms. Do maintenance on trees on your property before the storm season, and be aware of your surroundings during high wind events.
• Landslides and Debris Flows: Heavy rainfall on saturated hillsides can increase the risk of mudslides and debris flows—especially in recent burn scars and steep hillside areas.
• Power outages: Be prepared for potential power outages in your neighborhood.

How Should You Prepare? 

• Prepare for winter storms like you do every winter in California with heightened awareness.
• Create a storm-ready kit in preparation of winter storms. This includes being ready for potential power outages that can last 1-3 days.
• Clear storm drainage systems, trim trees and remove dead ones, and test your storm pumps if you have them.
• If you live in a flood zone, take pictures of your property that are prone to storm damage, and move your vehicles out of the flood zone before a storm arrives. Get sandbags at your local jurisdiction if your home has experienced flooding before.
• Remember: Don’t drown, Turn around. Never drive through flooded roads. 6 inches of water can sweep a car, and try to avoid driving during severe winter storms.
• Sign up for SMC Alert for emergency alerts in your area here: https://www.smcgov.org/dem/smc-alert Make sure to have at least 3 days worth of supplies per person in your household.